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Debriefing
The rule governing the sequence of numbers was, “Each digit is larger than the one before it.” Some participants are convinced that the rule is “Even digits in ascending order .” They come to this conclusion because they only test sequences of even, ascending digits. Other students test the possibility that being even or odd is not important and test sequences of a variety of ascending numbers, such as 3-5-7.
The point of this experiment is not to show that people can guess the rule governing a sequence of digits, but to show that people tend to only seek out information that confirms their hypothesis. This is known as confirmation bias.
Confirmation Bias
This experiment was based on a paradigm known as the Wason 2-4-6 task (Wason, 1960). This task was designed to explore confirmation bias during problem solving. Confirmation bias occurs when individuals only seek out information that confirms their current hypothesis. In the present experiment, this is reflected in entering more sequences that receive “yes” feedback than “no” feedback.
How do your responses stack up? Did you have a tendency to confirm your hypothesis or did you also try to disprove your hypothesis?